The Odds for Little Miss Sunshine

Does everyone know I'm a major Little Miss Sunshine fan by now? Good. Anyways, I'm going to put down the categories that LMS is nominated for, along with its rivalries.

Best Picture
Little Miss Sunshine
The Departed
The Queen
Letters from Iwo Jima
Babel

The Odds:
I hate it when people say it's not going to win because of it being "indie", "it's first time", or "too young". All of these movies have big-name movie stars in them, or directing them. Names like Brad Pitt (shall die), Clint Eastwood, Leonardo DeCaprio and Helen Mirren throw you off from what really matters - storyline.
According to Entertainment Weekly Magazine:

The Departed - 25%
Little Miss Sunshine - 23%
Babel - 20%
The Queen - 17%
Letters from Iwo Jima - 15%

Best Original Screenplay
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Pan's Labyrinth
Letters from Iwo Jima
Babel

The Odds:
Is this even a question? Little Miss Sunshine deserves to win 100%! I don't really consider "The Queen" an original screenplay, since it was based on true events. Babel, well, I have Brad Pitt issues. Letters from Iwo Jima wasn't "particularly fresh", says a voter for the Oscars.
His vote is Little Miss Sunshine, according to EWM.

Best Supporting Actress
Abagail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Adrianna Barraza - Babel
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

The Odds:
Of course, this is the one when it has the possibility of winning 5%. Jennifer Hudson will swoop up this one too, but Abagail definitely deserves this one more. On my Oscar Ballot sheet - in orange highlighter, my colour - it's highlighted, "Abagail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE".
Did Jennifer jump in and out of a VW bus? Did she sit ina 90-degree-Farenheit bus all day long?

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond

The Odds:
Ok, sure, maybe Eddie Murphy has picked it up quite a few times, but Alan Arkin did win the BAFTA over him. According to EWM, Eddie has a 33% chance, Alan has a 30% chance. Not bad, if I do say so myself. I also don't think Eddie deserves this, because he screwed everything up with Norbit, right before all the big awards.

-LovelyDisaster13